Then in the summer of 2016, Republicans nominated a man who insulted and antagonized Hispanic voters, especially those of Mexican ancestry, as much as any politician in memory––and whose crude immorality Mormon voters disdain. What’s more, the state is divided into relatively safe congressional districts, so local Democrats have never had great “get out the vote” operations.
For Barack Obama, a state with so few African Americans was the wrong long shot to prioritize-particularly with its longtime senator, John McCain, running during the 2008 cycle, and Mitt Romney doing predictably well in northern Arizona’s Mormon enclaves in 2012. But in recent cycles, there have been more attractive places to invest. That’s why Democratic operatives in Arizona have long urged their colleagues at the DNC to allocate resources for registering Hispanics and youth, believing that spending money to boost the voter pool and turnout would hasten the GOP’s decline.
It will happen if politically conservative retirees continue to die at the usual pace and Hispanics and millennials keep favoring Democrats as they expand their share of the electorate. Save for 1996, when Bill Clinton narrowly carried the state against Bob Dole (with spoiler Ross Perot claiming 8 percent of the vote), Democrats haven’t won in Arizona since 1948.īut political observers have long believed that Arizona will eventually turn blue, like California, Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico before it. Had the Republican Party nominated Jeb Bush, or Marco Rubio, or Ted Cruz, or John Kasich, or Rand Paul, Arizona would almost certainly be a safe state for the GOP.
Until election day, the marvel to behold in Arizona is its politics. Forget the Grand Canyon, the snow birds, the Navajo Nation, the golf courses, spring break at Lake Havasu, Monument Valley, and earth’s largest grove of ponderosa pine trees.